Feeling ClutchFC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
FC Dallas 48% to win
Home win 29%, draw 24%, away win 48%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and standings.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned FC Dallas (20 edges vs 0 edges for Sporting Kansas City).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans FC Dallas
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Win rate: Sporting Kansas City 0.17 vs FC Dallas 0.58 — leans FC Dallas
- Points per game: Sporting Kansas City 0.67 vs FC Dallas 2.00 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals scored per game: Sporting Kansas City 1.58 vs FC Dallas 2.00 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals allowed per game: Sporting Kansas City 2.42 vs FC Dallas 1.75 — leans FC Dallas
- Goal difference per game: Sporting Kansas City -0.83 vs FC Dallas 0.25 — leans FC Dallas
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans FC Dallas
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Win rate: Sporting Kansas City 0.17 vs FC Dallas 0.50 — leans FC Dallas
- Points per game: Sporting Kansas City 0.67 vs FC Dallas 1.83 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals scored per game: Sporting Kansas City 1.33 vs FC Dallas 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Sporting Kansas City 2.33 vs FC Dallas 0.83 — leans FC Dallas
Table and competition — leans FC Dallas
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Table rank: Sporting Kansas City 30 vs FC Dallas 5 — leans FC Dallas
- Points: Sporting Kansas City 22 vs FC Dallas 54 — leans FC Dallas
- Goal difference: Sporting Kansas City -40 vs FC Dallas 11 — leans FC Dallas
- Points per game in this competition: Sporting Kansas City 0.67 vs FC Dallas 1.83 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Sporting Kansas City 1.33 vs FC Dallas 1.50 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Sporting Kansas City 2.33 vs FC Dallas 0.83 — leans FC Dallas
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Sporting Kansas City 1.20 vs FC Dallas 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Sporting Kansas City 1.20 vs FC Dallas 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Sporting Kansas City 0.0 vs FC Dallas 1.2 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Sporting Kansas City 0.0 vs FC Dallas 0.5 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans FC Dallas
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Days of rest: Sporting Kansas City 7 vs FC Dallas 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Sporting Kansas City 93 vs FC Dallas 86 — leans FC Dallas
Elo and streaks — leans FC Dallas
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Elo: Sporting Kansas City 1348 vs FC Dallas 1569 — leans FC Dallas
- Win streak: Sporting Kansas City 0 vs FC Dallas 1 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Sporting Kansas City 0 vs FC Dallas 2 — leans FC Dallas
- Home/away split win rate: Sporting Kansas City 0.25 vs FC Dallas 0.33 — leans FC Dallas
Head-to-head — leans FC Dallas
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Sporting Kansas City 0.33 vs FC Dallas 0.67 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals per meeting: Sporting Kansas City 2.00 vs FC Dallas 2.50 — leans FC Dallas
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
FC Dallas +100 | Draw +310 | Sporting Kansas City +245 | O/U 3.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.