Feeling ClutchCF Montreal vs New York City FC
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
New York City FC 57% to win
Home win 57%, draw 22%, away win 21%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and form. Standings pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York City FC (9 edges vs 5 edges for CF Montreal).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans New York City FC
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors New York City FC.
- Win rate: New York City FC 0.08 vs CF Montreal 0.17 — leans CF Montreal
- Points per game: New York City FC 0.75 vs CF Montreal 0.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: New York City FC 1.00 vs CF Montreal 0.92 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: New York City FC 1.33 vs CF Montreal 2.17 — leans New York City FC
- Goal difference per game: New York City FC -0.33 vs CF Montreal -1.25 — leans New York City FC
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans CF Montreal
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors CF Montreal.
- Win rate: New York City FC 0.00 vs CF Montreal 0.17 — leans CF Montreal
- Points per game: New York City FC 0.50 vs CF Montreal 0.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: New York City FC 1.00 vs CF Montreal 0.83 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: New York City FC 1.67 vs CF Montreal 1.83 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans New York City FC
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors New York City FC.
- Table rank: New York City FC 23 vs CF Montreal 29 — leans New York City FC
- Points: New York City FC 35 vs CF Montreal 25 — leans New York City FC
- Goal difference: New York City FC 2 vs CF Montreal -26 — leans New York City FC
- Points per game in this competition: New York City FC 0.50 vs CF Montreal 0.67 — leans CF Montreal
- Goals scored per game in this competition: New York City FC 1.00 vs CF Montreal 0.83 — leans New York City FC
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: New York City FC 1.67 vs CF Montreal 1.83 — leans New York City FC
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: New York City FC 1.20 vs CF Montreal 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: New York City FC 1.20 vs CF Montreal 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: New York City FC 2.8 vs CF Montreal 2.2 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: New York City FC 1.1 vs CF Montreal 1.1 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans CF Montreal
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors CF Montreal.
- Days of rest: New York City FC 7 vs CF Montreal 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: New York City FC 130 vs CF Montreal 102 — leans CF Montreal
Elo and streaks — leans New York City FC
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors New York City FC.
- Elo: New York City FC 1493 vs CF Montreal 1381 — leans New York City FC
- Win streak: New York City FC 0 vs CF Montreal 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: New York City FC 1 vs CF Montreal 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: New York City FC 0.25 vs CF Montreal 0.08 — leans New York City FC
Head-to-head — leans CF Montreal
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors CF Montreal.
- Win rate in prior meetings: New York City FC 0.33 vs CF Montreal 0.67 — leans CF Montreal
- Goals per meeting: New York City FC 0.67 vs CF Montreal 0.83 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
CF Montreal +430 | Draw +335 | New York City FC -159 | O/U 2.5 (LeoVegas (SE))
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.