Feeling ClutchBorussia Dortmund vs Bayern München
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Bundesliga Prediction & Pick
Bayern München 64% to win
Home win 64%, draw 18%, away win 18%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Bayern München (11 edges vs 4 edges for Borussia Dortmund).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — roughly even
Recent form over the last ten games looks similar for Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München.
- Win rate: Bayern München 0.67 vs Borussia Dortmund 0.75 — leans Borussia Dortmund
- Points per game: Bayern München 2.33 vs Borussia Dortmund 2.42 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Bayern München 3.42 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.83 — leans Bayern München
- Goals allowed per game: Bayern München 1.00 vs Borussia Dortmund 0.83 — leans Borussia Dortmund
- Goal difference per game: Bayern München 2.42 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.00 — leans Bayern München
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München.
- Win rate: Bayern München 0.50 vs Borussia Dortmund 0.50 — roughly even
- Points per game: Bayern München 2.00 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.83 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Bayern München 3.83 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.00 — leans Bayern München
- Goals allowed per game: Bayern München 1.50 vs Borussia Dortmund 0.67 — leans Borussia Dortmund
Table and competition — leans Bayern München
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Bayern München.
- Table rank: Bayern München 1 vs Borussia Dortmund 2 — roughly even
- Points: Bayern München 17 vs Borussia Dortmund 17 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Bayern München 19 vs Borussia Dortmund 8 — leans Bayern München
- Points per game in this competition: Bayern München 2.33 vs Borussia Dortmund 2.33 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Bayern München 3.33 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.67 — leans Bayern München
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Bayern München 0.83 vs Borussia Dortmund 0.67 — leans Borussia Dortmund
Shots and expected goals — leans Bayern München
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Bayern München.
- Expected goals for: Bayern München 1.20 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Bayern München 1.20 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Bayern München 11.4 vs Borussia Dortmund 7.8 — leans Bayern München
- Shots on target for: Bayern München 5.3 vs Borussia Dortmund 2.6 — leans Bayern München
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München.
- Days of rest: Bayern München 6 vs Borussia Dortmund 7 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Bayern München 0 vs Borussia Dortmund 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Bayern München
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Bayern München.
- Elo: Bayern München 1822 vs Borussia Dortmund 1692 — leans Bayern München
- Win streak: Bayern München 1 vs Borussia Dortmund 2 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Bayern München 2 vs Borussia Dortmund 3 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Bayern München 0.75 vs Borussia Dortmund 0.50 — leans Bayern München
Head-to-head — leans Bayern München
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Bayern München.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Bayern München 0.50 vs Borussia Dortmund 0.17 — leans Bayern München
- Goals per meeting: Bayern München 2.00 vs Borussia Dortmund 1.33 — leans Bayern München
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Borussia Dortmund +639 | Draw +505 | Bayern München -251 | O/U 3.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.