Feeling Clutch1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
Saturday, October 31, 2026 — Bundesliga Prediction & Pick
Werder Bremen 39% to win
Home win 39%, draw 26%, away win 36%. No single feature group clearly drives that lean. Form and Elo and Standings pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Werder Bremen (8 edges vs 7 edges for 1899 Hoffenheim).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Win rate: Werder Bremen 0.33 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 0.50 — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
- Points per game: Werder Bremen 1.33 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.58 — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
- Goals scored per game: Werder Bremen 1.67 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.83 — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
- Goals allowed per game: Werder Bremen 1.83 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.92 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Werder Bremen -0.17 vs 1899 Hoffenheim -0.08 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Werder Bremen
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Werder Bremen.
- Win rate: Werder Bremen 0.50 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 0.50 — roughly even
- Points per game: Werder Bremen 2.00 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 — leans Werder Bremen
- Goals scored per game: Werder Bremen 2.33 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2.00 — leans Werder Bremen
- Goals allowed per game: Werder Bremen 1.67 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.83 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Werder Bremen
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Werder Bremen.
- Table rank: Werder Bremen 6 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 10 — leans Werder Bremen
- Points: Werder Bremen 12 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 9 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Werder Bremen 1 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 0 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Werder Bremen 2.00 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 — leans Werder Bremen
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Werder Bremen 2.33 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2.00 — leans Werder Bremen
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Werder Bremen 1.67 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.83 — leans Werder Bremen
Shots and expected goals — leans Werder Bremen
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Werder Bremen.
- Expected goals for: Werder Bremen 1.20 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Werder Bremen 1.20 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Werder Bremen 5.5 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 6.2 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Werder Bremen 2.8 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1.7 — leans Werder Bremen
Rest and availability — leans Werder Bremen
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Werder Bremen.
- Days of rest: Werder Bremen 7 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 6 — leans Werder Bremen
- Listed injuries: Werder Bremen 0 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Elo: Werder Bremen 1490 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1539 — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
- Win streak: Werder Bremen 1 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Werder Bremen 2 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Werder Bremen 0.33 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 0.42 — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
Head-to-head — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Werder Bremen 0.17 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 0.83 — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
- Goals per meeting: Werder Bremen 1.33 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 2.33 — leans 1899 Hoffenheim
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
1899 Hoffenheim +130 | Draw +321 | Werder Bremen +192 | O/U 3.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.