Feeling ClutchParis Saint Germain vs Le Havre
Friday, October 30, 2026 — Ligue 1 Prediction & Pick
Paris Saint Germain 54% to win
Home win 23%, draw 24%, away win 54%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Paris Saint Germain (23 edges vs 1 edge for Le Havre).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Paris Saint Germain
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Paris Saint Germain.
- Win rate: Le Havre 0.08 vs Paris Saint Germain 0.67 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Points per game: Le Havre 0.58 vs Paris Saint Germain 2.25 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goals scored per game: Le Havre 1.25 vs Paris Saint Germain 2.58 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goals allowed per game: Le Havre 1.75 vs Paris Saint Germain 1.25 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goal difference per game: Le Havre -0.50 vs Paris Saint Germain 1.33 — leans Paris Saint Germain
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Paris Saint Germain
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Paris Saint Germain.
- Win rate: Le Havre 0.00 vs Paris Saint Germain 1.00 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Points per game: Le Havre 0.17 vs Paris Saint Germain 3.00 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goals scored per game: Le Havre 1.17 vs Paris Saint Germain 3.00 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goals allowed per game: Le Havre 2.17 vs Paris Saint Germain 1.17 — leans Paris Saint Germain
Table and competition — leans Paris Saint Germain
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Paris Saint Germain.
- Table rank: Le Havre 18 vs Paris Saint Germain 1 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Points: Le Havre 2 vs Paris Saint Germain 17 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goal difference: Le Havre -7 vs Paris Saint Germain 7 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Points per game in this competition: Le Havre 0.17 vs Paris Saint Germain 2.50 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Le Havre 1.17 vs Paris Saint Germain 2.00 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Le Havre 2.17 vs Paris Saint Germain 0.83 — leans Paris Saint Germain
Shots and expected goals — leans Paris Saint Germain
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Paris Saint Germain.
- Expected goals for: Le Havre 1.20 vs Paris Saint Germain 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Le Havre 1.20 vs Paris Saint Germain 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Le Havre 6.0 vs Paris Saint Germain 10.4 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Shots on target for: Le Havre 1.8 vs Paris Saint Germain 4.9 — leans Paris Saint Germain
Rest and availability — leans Le Havre
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Le Havre.
- Days of rest: Le Havre 5 vs Paris Saint Germain 4 — leans Le Havre
- Listed injuries: Le Havre 0 vs Paris Saint Germain 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Paris Saint Germain
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Paris Saint Germain.
- Elo: Le Havre 1414 vs Paris Saint Germain 1797 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Win streak: Le Havre 0 vs Paris Saint Germain 8 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Unbeaten streak: Le Havre 0 vs Paris Saint Germain 8 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Home/away split win rate: Le Havre 0.17 vs Paris Saint Germain 0.67 — leans Paris Saint Germain
Head-to-head — leans Paris Saint Germain
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Paris Saint Germain.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Le Havre 0.00 vs Paris Saint Germain 0.83 — leans Paris Saint Germain
- Goals per meeting: Le Havre 0.83 vs Paris Saint Germain 2.50 — leans Paris Saint Germain
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Paris Saint Germain -385 | Draw +640 | Le Havre +1100 | O/U 3.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.