Feeling ClutchFSV Mainz 05 vs SV Elversberg
Friday, October 30, 2026 — Bundesliga Prediction & Pick
SV Elversberg 46% to win
Home win 46%, draw 24%, away win 30%. No single feature group clearly drives that lean. Form and Elo pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned FSV Mainz 05 (13 edges vs 0 edges for SV Elversberg).
Note: the model leans SV Elversberg even though the simple edge count favors FSV Mainz 05. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans FSV Mainz 05
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors FSV Mainz 05.
- Win rate: SV Elversberg 0.33 vs FSV Mainz 05 0.42 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Points per game: SV Elversberg 1.22 vs FSV Mainz 05 1.42 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Goals scored per game: SV Elversberg 1.67 vs FSV Mainz 05 2.08 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Goals allowed per game: SV Elversberg 2.11 vs FSV Mainz 05 1.83 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Goal difference per game: SV Elversberg -0.44 vs FSV Mainz 05 0.25 — leans FSV Mainz 05
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans FSV Mainz 05
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors FSV Mainz 05.
- Win rate: SV Elversberg 0.33 vs FSV Mainz 05 0.50 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Points per game: SV Elversberg 1.17 vs FSV Mainz 05 1.50 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Goals scored per game: SV Elversberg 1.50 vs FSV Mainz 05 2.67 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Goals allowed per game: SV Elversberg 2.17 vs FSV Mainz 05 2.17 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans FSV Mainz 05
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors FSV Mainz 05.
- Table rank: SV Elversberg 8 vs FSV Mainz 05 7 — roughly even
- Points: SV Elversberg 10 vs FSV Mainz 05 10 — roughly even
- Goal difference: SV Elversberg -3 vs FSV Mainz 05 3 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Points per game in this competition: SV Elversberg 1.17 vs FSV Mainz 05 1.50 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Goals scored per game in this competition: SV Elversberg 1.50 vs FSV Mainz 05 2.67 — leans FSV Mainz 05
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: SV Elversberg 2.17 vs FSV Mainz 05 2.17 — roughly even
Shots and expected goals — leans FSV Mainz 05
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors FSV Mainz 05.
- Expected goals for: SV Elversberg 1.20 vs FSV Mainz 05 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: SV Elversberg 1.20 vs FSV Mainz 05 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: SV Elversberg 4.7 vs FSV Mainz 05 5.7 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: SV Elversberg 1.3 vs FSV Mainz 05 2.2 — leans FSV Mainz 05
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for FSV Mainz 05 and SV Elversberg.
- Days of rest: SV Elversberg 6 vs FSV Mainz 05 6 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: SV Elversberg 0 vs FSV Mainz 05 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans FSV Mainz 05
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors FSV Mainz 05.
- Elo: SV Elversberg 1500 vs FSV Mainz 05 1516 — roughly even
- Win streak: SV Elversberg 0 vs FSV Mainz 05 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: SV Elversberg 0 vs FSV Mainz 05 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: SV Elversberg 0.50 vs FSV Mainz 05 0.67 — leans FSV Mainz 05
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
FSV Mainz 05 +118 | Draw +310 | SV Elversberg +220 | O/U 3.5 (Matchbook)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.