Feeling ClutchEspanyol vs Villarreal
Friday, October 30, 2026 — La Liga Prediction & Pick
Villarreal 60% to win
Home win 60%, draw 22%, away win 18%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo. Standings pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Villarreal (17 edges vs 1 edge for Espanyol).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Villarreal
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Villarreal.
- Win rate: Villarreal 0.33 vs Espanyol 0.25 — leans Villarreal
- Points per game: Villarreal 1.17 vs Espanyol 1.00 — leans Villarreal
- Goals scored per game: Villarreal 1.75 vs Espanyol 1.25 — leans Villarreal
- Goals allowed per game: Villarreal 1.67 vs Espanyol 1.33 — leans Espanyol
- Goal difference per game: Villarreal 0.08 vs Espanyol -0.08 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Villarreal
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Villarreal.
- Win rate: Villarreal 0.50 vs Espanyol 0.17 — leans Villarreal
- Points per game: Villarreal 1.67 vs Espanyol 0.67 — leans Villarreal
- Goals scored per game: Villarreal 1.83 vs Espanyol 1.00 — leans Villarreal
- Goals allowed per game: Villarreal 1.33 vs Espanyol 1.50 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Villarreal
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Villarreal.
- Table rank: Villarreal 10 vs Espanyol 18 — leans Villarreal
- Points: Villarreal 12 vs Espanyol 8 — leans Villarreal
- Goal difference: Villarreal 1 vs Espanyol -2 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Villarreal 1.67 vs Espanyol 0.67 — leans Villarreal
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Villarreal 1.50 vs Espanyol 1.00 — leans Villarreal
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Villarreal 1.00 vs Espanyol 1.50 — leans Villarreal
Shots and expected goals — leans Villarreal
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Villarreal.
- Expected goals for: Villarreal 1.20 vs Espanyol 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Villarreal 1.20 vs Espanyol 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Villarreal 11.2 vs Espanyol 6.0 — leans Villarreal
- Shots on target for: Villarreal 3.8 vs Espanyol 1.3 — leans Villarreal
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Espanyol and Villarreal.
- Days of rest: Villarreal 6 vs Espanyol 6 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Villarreal 0 vs Espanyol 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Villarreal
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Villarreal.
- Elo: Villarreal 1571 vs Espanyol 1441 — leans Villarreal
- Win streak: Villarreal 1 vs Espanyol 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Villarreal 1 vs Espanyol 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Villarreal 0.67 vs Espanyol 0.17 — leans Villarreal
Head-to-head — leans Villarreal
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Villarreal.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Villarreal 1.00 vs Espanyol 0.00 — leans Villarreal
- Goals per meeting: Villarreal 2.33 vs Espanyol 0.67 — leans Villarreal
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Espanyol +567 | Draw +403 | Villarreal -200 | O/U 3.5 (1xBet)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.