Feeling ClutchAtalanta vs Fiorentina
Thursday, October 29, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Atalanta 38% to win
Home win 36%, draw 26%, away win 38%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and form.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Atalanta (12 edges vs 3 edges for Fiorentina).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Atalanta
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Win rate: Fiorentina 0.17 vs Atalanta 0.33 — leans Atalanta
- Points per game: Fiorentina 0.75 vs Atalanta 1.25 — leans Atalanta
- Goals scored per game: Fiorentina 1.00 vs Atalanta 1.50 — leans Atalanta
- Goals allowed per game: Fiorentina 2.00 vs Atalanta 1.58 — leans Atalanta
- Goal difference per game: Fiorentina -1.00 vs Atalanta -0.08 — leans Atalanta
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Atalanta and Fiorentina.
- Win rate: Fiorentina 0.17 vs Atalanta 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: Fiorentina 0.67 vs Atalanta 0.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Fiorentina 1.50 vs Atalanta 1.83 — leans Atalanta
- Goals allowed per game: Fiorentina 2.00 vs Atalanta 2.33 — leans Fiorentina
Table and competition — leans Atalanta
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Table rank: Fiorentina 18 vs Atalanta 11 — leans Atalanta
- Points: Fiorentina 4 vs Atalanta 10 — leans Atalanta
- Goal difference: Fiorentina -10 vs Atalanta -1 — leans Atalanta
- Points per game in this competition: Fiorentina 0.67 vs Atalanta 0.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Fiorentina 1.50 vs Atalanta 1.83 — leans Atalanta
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Fiorentina 2.00 vs Atalanta 2.33 — leans Fiorentina
Shots and expected goals — leans Atalanta
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Expected goals for: Fiorentina 1.20 vs Atalanta 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Fiorentina 1.20 vs Atalanta 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Fiorentina 4.7 vs Atalanta 5.6 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Fiorentina 1.3 vs Atalanta 2.2 — leans Atalanta
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Atalanta and Fiorentina.
- Days of rest: Fiorentina 4 vs Atalanta 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Fiorentina 0 vs Atalanta 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Atalanta
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Atalanta.
- Elo: Fiorentina 1499 vs Atalanta 1575 — leans Atalanta
- Win streak: Fiorentina 0 vs Atalanta 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Fiorentina 0 vs Atalanta 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Fiorentina 0.17 vs Atalanta 0.17 — roughly even
Head-to-head — leans Fiorentina
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Fiorentina.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Fiorentina 0.50 vs Atalanta 0.33 — leans Fiorentina
- Goals per meeting: Fiorentina 1.67 vs Atalanta 1.67 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Atalanta +235 | Draw +275 | Fiorentina +126 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.