Feeling ClutchUdinese vs Parma
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Parma 47% to win
Home win 47%, draw 26%, away win 26%. No single feature group clearly drives that lean. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Udinese (7 edges vs 6 edges for Parma).
Note: the model leans Parma even though the simple edge count favors Udinese. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Udinese
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Udinese.
- Win rate: Parma 0.17 vs Udinese 0.25 — leans Udinese
- Points per game: Parma 0.58 vs Udinese 0.83 — leans Udinese
- Goals scored per game: Parma 0.67 vs Udinese 1.08 — leans Udinese
- Goals allowed per game: Parma 1.75 vs Udinese 1.67 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Parma -1.08 vs Udinese -0.58 — leans Udinese
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Parma
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Parma.
- Win rate: Parma 0.17 vs Udinese 0.00 — leans Parma
- Points per game: Parma 0.67 vs Udinese 0.00 — leans Parma
- Goals scored per game: Parma 0.83 vs Udinese 0.83 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Parma 2.00 vs Udinese 2.50 — leans Parma
Table and competition — leans Parma
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Parma.
- Table rank: Parma 19 vs Udinese 17 — roughly even
- Points: Parma 4 vs Udinese 4 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Parma -10 vs Udinese -9 — roughly even
- Points per game in this competition: Parma 0.67 vs Udinese 0.00 — leans Parma
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Parma 0.83 vs Udinese 0.83 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Parma 2.00 vs Udinese 2.50 — leans Parma
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Parma 1.20 vs Udinese 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Parma 1.20 vs Udinese 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Parma 5.1 vs Udinese 6.1 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Parma 1.7 vs Udinese 1.5 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans Parma
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Parma.
- Days of rest: Parma 4 vs Udinese 3 — leans Parma
- Listed injuries: Parma 0 vs Udinese 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Udinese
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Udinese.
- Elo: Parma 1461 vs Udinese 1455 — roughly even
- Win streak: Parma 0 vs Udinese 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Parma 0 vs Udinese 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Parma 0.33 vs Udinese 0.42 — leans Udinese
Head-to-head — leans Udinese
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Udinese.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Parma 0.25 vs Udinese 0.75 — leans Udinese
- Goals per meeting: Parma 0.75 vs Udinese 1.50 — leans Udinese
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Udinese +176 | Draw +220 | Parma +200 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.