Feeling ClutchSporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Minnesota United FC 61% to win
Home win 61%, draw 20%, away win 19%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Minnesota United FC (18 edges vs 0 edges for Sporting Kansas City).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Minnesota United FC
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Minnesota United FC.
- Win rate: Minnesota United FC 0.17 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: Minnesota United FC 0.83 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.67 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goals scored per game: Minnesota United FC 2.17 vs Sporting Kansas City 1.58 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goals allowed per game: Minnesota United FC 2.42 vs Sporting Kansas City 2.42 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Minnesota United FC -0.25 vs Sporting Kansas City -0.83 — leans Minnesota United FC
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Minnesota United FC
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Minnesota United FC.
- Win rate: Minnesota United FC 0.17 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: Minnesota United FC 1.00 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.67 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goals scored per game: Minnesota United FC 1.67 vs Sporting Kansas City 1.33 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goals allowed per game: Minnesota United FC 2.00 vs Sporting Kansas City 2.33 — leans Minnesota United FC
Table and competition — leans Minnesota United FC
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Minnesota United FC.
- Table rank: Minnesota United FC 25 vs Sporting Kansas City 30 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Points: Minnesota United FC 35 vs Sporting Kansas City 22 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goal difference: Minnesota United FC -8 vs Sporting Kansas City -40 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Points per game in this competition: Minnesota United FC 1.00 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.67 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Minnesota United FC 1.67 vs Sporting Kansas City 1.33 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Minnesota United FC 2.00 vs Sporting Kansas City 2.33 — leans Minnesota United FC
Shots and expected goals — leans Minnesota United FC
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Minnesota United FC.
- Expected goals for: Minnesota United FC 1.20 vs Sporting Kansas City 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Minnesota United FC 1.20 vs Sporting Kansas City 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Minnesota United FC 2.2 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.0 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Shots on target for: Minnesota United FC 0.9 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.0 — leans Minnesota United FC
Rest and availability — leans Minnesota United FC
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Minnesota United FC.
- Days of rest: Minnesota United FC 4 vs Sporting Kansas City 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Minnesota United FC 90 vs Sporting Kansas City 93 — leans Minnesota United FC
Elo and streaks — leans Minnesota United FC
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Minnesota United FC.
- Elo: Minnesota United FC 1483 vs Sporting Kansas City 1348 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Win streak: Minnesota United FC 0 vs Sporting Kansas City 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Minnesota United FC 1 vs Sporting Kansas City 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Minnesota United FC 0.17 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.17 — roughly even
Head-to-head — leans Minnesota United FC
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Minnesota United FC.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Minnesota United FC 0.67 vs Sporting Kansas City 0.17 — leans Minnesota United FC
- Goals per meeting: Minnesota United FC 2.33 vs Sporting Kansas City 1.17 — leans Minnesota United FC
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Sporting Kansas City +560 | Draw +460 | Minnesota United FC -217 | O/U 3.5 (Matchbook)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.