Feeling ClutchPortland Timbers vs St. Louis City
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
St. Louis City 54% to win
Home win 54%, draw 23%, away win 23%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis City (20 edges vs 1 edge for Portland Timbers).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans St. Louis City
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Win rate: St. Louis City 0.50 vs Portland Timbers 0.25 — leans St. Louis City
- Points per game: St. Louis City 1.83 vs Portland Timbers 1.08 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals scored per game: St. Louis City 2.42 vs Portland Timbers 1.67 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals allowed per game: St. Louis City 1.58 vs Portland Timbers 1.92 — leans St. Louis City
- Goal difference per game: St. Louis City 0.83 vs Portland Timbers -0.25 — leans St. Louis City
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans St. Louis City
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Win rate: St. Louis City 0.50 vs Portland Timbers 0.17 — leans St. Louis City
- Points per game: St. Louis City 1.67 vs Portland Timbers 0.83 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals scored per game: St. Louis City 2.33 vs Portland Timbers 1.17 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals allowed per game: St. Louis City 1.50 vs Portland Timbers 1.83 — leans St. Louis City
Table and competition — leans St. Louis City
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Table rank: St. Louis City 6 vs Portland Timbers 21 — leans St. Louis City
- Points: St. Louis City 51 vs Portland Timbers 37 — leans St. Louis City
- Goal difference: St. Louis City 12 vs Portland Timbers -4 — leans St. Louis City
- Points per game in this competition: St. Louis City 1.67 vs Portland Timbers 0.83 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals scored per game in this competition: St. Louis City 2.33 vs Portland Timbers 1.17 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: St. Louis City 1.50 vs Portland Timbers 1.83 — leans St. Louis City
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: St. Louis City 1.20 vs Portland Timbers 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: St. Louis City 1.20 vs Portland Timbers 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: St. Louis City 1.2 vs Portland Timbers 0.0 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: St. Louis City 0.5 vs Portland Timbers 0.0 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans St. Louis City
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Days of rest: St. Louis City 4 vs Portland Timbers 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: St. Louis City 86 vs Portland Timbers 91 — leans St. Louis City
Elo and streaks — leans St. Louis City
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Elo: St. Louis City 1520 vs Portland Timbers 1479 — leans St. Louis City
- Win streak: St. Louis City 0 vs Portland Timbers 1 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: St. Louis City 0 vs Portland Timbers 2 — leans Portland Timbers
- Home/away split win rate: St. Louis City 0.67 vs Portland Timbers 0.17 — leans St. Louis City
Head-to-head — leans St. Louis City
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors St. Louis City.
- Win rate in prior meetings: St. Louis City 0.33 vs Portland Timbers 0.17 — leans St. Louis City
- Goals per meeting: St. Louis City 2.00 vs Portland Timbers 1.67 — leans St. Louis City
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Portland Timbers +320 | Draw +350 | St. Louis City -128 | O/U 3.5 (Matchbook)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.