Feeling ClutchPhiladelphia Union vs Nashville SC
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Nashville SC 44% to win
Home win 44%, draw 25%, away win 31%. That lean is driven mainly by elo. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Nashville SC (13 edges vs 3 edges for Philadelphia Union).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — roughly even
Recent form over the last ten games looks similar for Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC.
- Win rate: Nashville SC 0.67 vs Philadelphia Union 0.67 — roughly even
- Points per game: Nashville SC 2.25 vs Philadelphia Union 2.25 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: Nashville SC 2.25 vs Philadelphia Union 2.83 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Goals allowed per game: Nashville SC 0.67 vs Philadelphia Union 1.25 — leans Nashville SC
- Goal difference per game: Nashville SC 1.58 vs Philadelphia Union 1.58 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Nashville SC
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Win rate: Nashville SC 0.83 vs Philadelphia Union 0.67 — leans Nashville SC
- Points per game: Nashville SC 2.67 vs Philadelphia Union 2.17 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals scored per game: Nashville SC 2.67 vs Philadelphia Union 2.67 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: Nashville SC 0.33 vs Philadelphia Union 1.83 — leans Nashville SC
Table and competition — leans Nashville SC
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Table rank: Nashville SC 1 vs Philadelphia Union 12 — leans Nashville SC
- Points: Nashville SC 70 vs Philadelphia Union 46 — leans Nashville SC
- Goal difference: Nashville SC 43 vs Philadelphia Union 12 — leans Nashville SC
- Points per game in this competition: Nashville SC 2.67 vs Philadelphia Union 2.17 — leans Nashville SC
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Nashville SC 2.67 vs Philadelphia Union 2.67 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Nashville SC 0.33 vs Philadelphia Union 1.83 — leans Nashville SC
Shots and expected goals — leans Philadelphia Union
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Philadelphia Union.
- Expected goals for: Nashville SC 1.20 vs Philadelphia Union 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Nashville SC 1.20 vs Philadelphia Union 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Nashville SC 0.7 vs Philadelphia Union 3.8 — leans Philadelphia Union
- Shots on target for: Nashville SC 0.3 vs Philadelphia Union 1.1 — leans Philadelphia Union
Rest and availability — leans Nashville SC
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Days of rest: Nashville SC 4 vs Philadelphia Union 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Nashville SC 71 vs Philadelphia Union 95 — leans Nashville SC
Elo and streaks — leans Nashville SC
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Nashville SC.
- Elo: Nashville SC 1615 vs Philadelphia Union 1563 — leans Nashville SC
- Win streak: Nashville SC 1 vs Philadelphia Union 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Nashville SC 2 vs Philadelphia Union 0 — leans Nashville SC
- Home/away split win rate: Nashville SC 0.92 vs Philadelphia Union 0.42 — leans Nashville SC
Head-to-head — roughly even
Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC does not clearly favor either side.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Nashville SC 0.33 vs Philadelphia Union 0.33 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: Nashville SC 0.83 vs Philadelphia Union 1.00 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Union +300 | Draw +320 | Nashville SC -115 | O/U 3.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.