Feeling ClutchOrlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Chicago Fire 51% to win
Home win 51%, draw 22%, away win 27%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and standings. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Fire (13 edges vs 7 edges for Orlando City SC).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Orlando City SC
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Orlando City SC.
- Win rate: Chicago Fire 0.33 vs Orlando City SC 0.50 — leans Orlando City SC
- Points per game: Chicago Fire 1.25 vs Orlando City SC 1.75 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals scored per game: Chicago Fire 1.58 vs Orlando City SC 2.42 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals allowed per game: Chicago Fire 1.83 vs Orlando City SC 2.00 — leans Chicago Fire
- Goal difference per game: Chicago Fire -0.25 vs Orlando City SC 0.42 — leans Orlando City SC
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Chicago Fire
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Chicago Fire.
- Win rate: Chicago Fire 0.67 vs Orlando City SC 0.33 — leans Chicago Fire
- Points per game: Chicago Fire 2.00 vs Orlando City SC 1.33 — leans Chicago Fire
- Goals scored per game: Chicago Fire 1.67 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals allowed per game: Chicago Fire 1.33 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Chicago Fire
Table and competition — leans Chicago Fire
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Chicago Fire.
- Table rank: Chicago Fire 7 vs Orlando City SC 16 — leans Chicago Fire
- Points: Chicago Fire 51 vs Orlando City SC 42 — leans Chicago Fire
- Goal difference: Chicago Fire 9 vs Orlando City SC -12 — leans Chicago Fire
- Points per game in this competition: Chicago Fire 2.00 vs Orlando City SC 1.33 — leans Chicago Fire
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Chicago Fire 1.67 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Orlando City SC
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Chicago Fire 1.33 vs Orlando City SC 2.67 — leans Chicago Fire
Shots and expected goals — leans Chicago Fire
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Chicago Fire.
- Expected goals for: Chicago Fire 1.20 vs Orlando City SC 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Chicago Fire 1.20 vs Orlando City SC 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Chicago Fire 3.8 vs Orlando City SC 1.8 — leans Chicago Fire
- Shots on target for: Chicago Fire 1.2 vs Orlando City SC 0.9 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans Orlando City SC
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Orlando City SC.
- Days of rest: Chicago Fire 4 vs Orlando City SC 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Chicago Fire 114 vs Orlando City SC 104 — leans Orlando City SC
Elo and streaks — leans Chicago Fire
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Chicago Fire.
- Elo: Chicago Fire 1551 vs Orlando City SC 1526 — roughly even
- Win streak: Chicago Fire 1 vs Orlando City SC 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Chicago Fire 1 vs Orlando City SC 1 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Chicago Fire 0.58 vs Orlando City SC 0.33 — leans Chicago Fire
Head-to-head — leans Chicago Fire
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Chicago Fire.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Chicago Fire 0.50 vs Orlando City SC 0.17 — leans Chicago Fire
- Goals per meeting: Chicago Fire 1.83 vs Orlando City SC 1.33 — leans Chicago Fire
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Orlando City SC +390 | Draw +410 | Chicago Fire -161 | O/U 3.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.