Feeling ClutchNew York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
New England Revolution 59% to win
Home win 59%, draw 22%, away win 20%. That lean is driven mainly by form and standings.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New England Revolution (17 edges vs 4 edges for New York Red Bulls).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans New England Revolution
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors New England Revolution.
- Win rate: New England Revolution 0.67 vs New York Red Bulls 0.33 — leans New England Revolution
- Points per game: New England Revolution 2.08 vs New York Red Bulls 1.17 — leans New England Revolution
- Goals scored per game: New England Revolution 1.83 vs New York Red Bulls 0.92 — leans New England Revolution
- Goals allowed per game: New England Revolution 1.42 vs New York Red Bulls 1.25 — leans New York Red Bulls
- Goal difference per game: New England Revolution 0.42 vs New York Red Bulls -0.33 — leans New England Revolution
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans New England Revolution
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors New England Revolution.
- Win rate: New England Revolution 0.67 vs New York Red Bulls 0.50 — leans New England Revolution
- Points per game: New England Revolution 2.00 vs New York Red Bulls 1.50 — leans New England Revolution
- Goals scored per game: New England Revolution 1.67 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans New England Revolution
- Goals allowed per game: New England Revolution 1.83 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans New York Red Bulls
Table and competition — leans New England Revolution
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors New England Revolution.
- Table rank: New England Revolution 4 vs New York Red Bulls 19 — leans New England Revolution
- Points: New England Revolution 55 vs New York Red Bulls 39 — leans New England Revolution
- Goal difference: New England Revolution 9 vs New York Red Bulls -15 — leans New England Revolution
- Points per game in this competition: New England Revolution 2.00 vs New York Red Bulls 1.50 — leans New England Revolution
- Goals scored per game in this competition: New England Revolution 1.67 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans New England Revolution
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: New England Revolution 1.83 vs New York Red Bulls 1.33 — leans New York Red Bulls
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: New England Revolution 1.20 vs New York Red Bulls 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: New England Revolution 1.20 vs New York Red Bulls 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: New England Revolution 1.4 vs New York Red Bulls 2.8 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: New England Revolution 1.0 vs New York Red Bulls 0.8 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans New England Revolution
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors New England Revolution.
- Days of rest: New England Revolution 4 vs New York Red Bulls 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: New England Revolution 83 vs New York Red Bulls 96 — leans New England Revolution
Elo and streaks — leans New England Revolution
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors New England Revolution.
- Elo: New England Revolution 1524 vs New York Red Bulls 1477 — leans New England Revolution
- Win streak: New England Revolution 3 vs New York Red Bulls 1 — leans New England Revolution
- Unbeaten streak: New England Revolution 3 vs New York Red Bulls 1 — leans New England Revolution
- Home/away split win rate: New England Revolution 0.58 vs New York Red Bulls 0.33 — leans New England Revolution
Head-to-head — leans New York Red Bulls
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors New York Red Bulls.
- Win rate in prior meetings: New England Revolution 0.50 vs New York Red Bulls 0.50 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: New England Revolution 1.50 vs New York Red Bulls 1.83 — leans New York Red Bulls
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
New York Red Bulls +255 | Draw +330 | New England Revolution -101 | O/U 3.5 (Matchbook)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.