Feeling ClutchInter vs Venezia
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
Inter 55% to win
Home win 21%, draw 24%, away win 55%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo. Standings pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Inter (23 edges vs 0 edges for Venezia).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Inter
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Inter.
- Win rate: Venezia 0.17 vs Inter 0.67 — leans Inter
- Points per game: Venezia 0.58 vs Inter 2.17 — leans Inter
- Goals scored per game: Venezia 0.92 vs Inter 2.58 — leans Inter
- Goals allowed per game: Venezia 2.08 vs Inter 1.58 — leans Inter
- Goal difference per game: Venezia -1.17 vs Inter 1.00 — leans Inter
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Inter
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Inter.
- Win rate: Venezia 0.17 vs Inter 0.67 — leans Inter
- Points per game: Venezia 0.50 vs Inter 2.17 — leans Inter
- Goals scored per game: Venezia 1.00 vs Inter 2.33 — leans Inter
- Goals allowed per game: Venezia 2.17 vs Inter 1.33 — leans Inter
Table and competition — leans Inter
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Inter.
- Table rank: Venezia 20 vs Inter 1 — leans Inter
- Points: Venezia 3 vs Inter 22 — leans Inter
- Goal difference: Venezia -11 vs Inter 13 — leans Inter
- Points per game in this competition: Venezia 0.50 vs Inter 2.67 — leans Inter
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Venezia 1.00 vs Inter 3.00 — leans Inter
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Venezia 2.17 vs Inter 1.50 — leans Inter
Shots and expected goals — leans Inter
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors Inter.
- Expected goals for: Venezia 1.20 vs Inter 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Venezia 1.20 vs Inter 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Venezia 5.3 vs Inter 12.9 — leans Inter
- Shots on target for: Venezia 1.6 vs Inter 4.9 — leans Inter
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Inter and Venezia.
- Days of rest: Venezia 3 vs Inter 3 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Venezia 0 vs Inter 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans Inter
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Inter.
- Elo: Venezia 1404 vs Inter 1738 — leans Inter
- Win streak: Venezia 0 vs Inter 3 — leans Inter
- Unbeaten streak: Venezia 0 vs Inter 3 — leans Inter
- Home/away split win rate: Venezia 0.25 vs Inter 0.42 — leans Inter
Head-to-head — leans Inter
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors Inter.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Venezia 0.00 vs Inter 1.00 — leans Inter
- Goals per meeting: Venezia 0.00 vs Inter 1.00 — leans Inter
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Inter -244 | Draw +470 | Venezia +740 | O/U 3.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.