Feeling ClutchDC United vs Toronto FC
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Toronto FC 58% to win
Home win 58%, draw 21%, away win 21%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Toronto FC (15 edges vs 1 edge for DC United).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Toronto FC
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Toronto FC.
- Win rate: Toronto FC 0.33 vs DC United 0.17 — leans Toronto FC
- Points per game: Toronto FC 1.33 vs DC United 0.75 — leans Toronto FC
- Goals scored per game: Toronto FC 1.83 vs DC United 0.92 — leans Toronto FC
- Goals allowed per game: Toronto FC 2.17 vs DC United 2.08 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: Toronto FC -0.33 vs DC United -1.17 — leans Toronto FC
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Toronto FC
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Toronto FC.
- Win rate: Toronto FC 0.33 vs DC United 0.17 — leans Toronto FC
- Points per game: Toronto FC 1.17 vs DC United 0.67 — leans Toronto FC
- Goals scored per game: Toronto FC 1.67 vs DC United 1.17 — leans Toronto FC
- Goals allowed per game: Toronto FC 2.17 vs DC United 2.67 — leans Toronto FC
Table and competition — leans Toronto FC
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Toronto FC.
- Table rank: Toronto FC 22 vs DC United 27 — leans Toronto FC
- Points: Toronto FC 36 vs DC United 33 — roughly even
- Goal difference: Toronto FC -11 vs DC United -17 — leans Toronto FC
- Points per game in this competition: Toronto FC 1.17 vs DC United 0.67 — leans Toronto FC
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Toronto FC 1.67 vs DC United 1.17 — leans Toronto FC
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Toronto FC 2.17 vs DC United 2.67 — leans Toronto FC
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: Toronto FC 1.20 vs DC United 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Toronto FC 1.20 vs DC United 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Toronto FC 3.3 vs DC United 2.9 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Toronto FC 1.3 vs DC United 0.8 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans DC United
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors DC United.
- Days of rest: Toronto FC 4 vs DC United 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Toronto FC 203 vs DC United 88 — leans DC United
Elo and streaks — leans Toronto FC
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Toronto FC.
- Elo: Toronto FC 1460 vs DC United 1416 — leans Toronto FC
- Win streak: Toronto FC 0 vs DC United 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Toronto FC 0 vs DC United 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Toronto FC 0.25 vs DC United 0.08 — leans Toronto FC
Head-to-head — roughly even
Head-to-head history between DC United and Toronto FC does not clearly favor either side.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Toronto FC 0.33 vs DC United 0.33 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: Toronto FC 1.67 vs DC United 1.67 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
DC United +250 | Draw +300 | Toronto FC +106 | O/U 3.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.