Feeling ClutchColumbus Crew vs FC Dallas
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
FC Dallas 56% to win
Home win 56%, draw 22%, away win 21%. That lean is driven mainly by elo and standings.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned FC Dallas (10 edges vs 8 edges for Columbus Crew).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans FC Dallas
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Win rate: FC Dallas 0.58 vs Columbus Crew 0.50 — leans FC Dallas
- Points per game: FC Dallas 2.00 vs Columbus Crew 1.50 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals scored per game: FC Dallas 2.00 vs Columbus Crew 1.83 — leans FC Dallas
- Goals allowed per game: FC Dallas 1.75 vs Columbus Crew 1.50 — leans Columbus Crew
- Goal difference per game: FC Dallas 0.25 vs Columbus Crew 0.33 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Columbus Crew
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Columbus Crew.
- Win rate: FC Dallas 0.50 vs Columbus Crew 0.83 — leans Columbus Crew
- Points per game: FC Dallas 1.83 vs Columbus Crew 2.50 — leans Columbus Crew
- Goals scored per game: FC Dallas 1.50 vs Columbus Crew 2.50 — leans Columbus Crew
- Goals allowed per game: FC Dallas 0.83 vs Columbus Crew 1.17 — leans FC Dallas
Table and competition — leans FC Dallas
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Table rank: FC Dallas 5 vs Columbus Crew 20 — leans FC Dallas
- Points: FC Dallas 54 vs Columbus Crew 38 — leans FC Dallas
- Goal difference: FC Dallas 11 vs Columbus Crew 1 — leans FC Dallas
- Points per game in this competition: FC Dallas 1.83 vs Columbus Crew 2.50 — leans Columbus Crew
- Goals scored per game in this competition: FC Dallas 1.50 vs Columbus Crew 2.50 — leans Columbus Crew
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: FC Dallas 0.83 vs Columbus Crew 1.17 — leans FC Dallas
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: FC Dallas 1.20 vs Columbus Crew 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: FC Dallas 1.20 vs Columbus Crew 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: FC Dallas 1.2 vs Columbus Crew 1.1 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: FC Dallas 0.5 vs Columbus Crew 0.7 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans Columbus Crew
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Columbus Crew.
- Days of rest: FC Dallas 4 vs Columbus Crew 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: FC Dallas 86 vs Columbus Crew 66 — leans Columbus Crew
Elo and streaks — leans FC Dallas
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors FC Dallas.
- Elo: FC Dallas 1569 vs Columbus Crew 1521 — leans FC Dallas
- Win streak: FC Dallas 1 vs Columbus Crew 3 — leans Columbus Crew
- Unbeaten streak: FC Dallas 2 vs Columbus Crew 3 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: FC Dallas 0.58 vs Columbus Crew 0.17 — leans FC Dallas
Head-to-head — roughly even
Head-to-head history between Columbus Crew and FC Dallas does not clearly favor either side.
- Win rate in prior meetings: FC Dallas 0.00 vs Columbus Crew 0.00 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: FC Dallas 1.00 vs Columbus Crew 1.00 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Columbus Crew +235 | Draw +310 | FC Dallas +110 | O/U 3.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.