Feeling ClutchColorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
San Jose Earthquakes 49% to win
Home win 49%, draw 25%, away win 26%. That lean is driven mainly by elo.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Colorado Rapids
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Colorado Rapids.
- Win rate: San Jose Earthquakes 0.25 vs Colorado Rapids 0.33 — leans Colorado Rapids
- Points per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.25 vs Colorado Rapids 1.42 — leans Colorado Rapids
- Goals scored per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.17 vs Colorado Rapids 1.08 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.50 vs Colorado Rapids 1.33 — leans Colorado Rapids
- Goal difference per game: San Jose Earthquakes -0.33 vs Colorado Rapids -0.25 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes.
- Win rate: San Jose Earthquakes 0.17 vs Colorado Rapids 0.17 — roughly even
- Points per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.17 vs Colorado Rapids 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.33 vs Colorado Rapids 1.50 — roughly even
- Goals allowed per game: San Jose Earthquakes 1.50 vs Colorado Rapids 1.50 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors San Jose Earthquakes.
- Table rank: San Jose Earthquakes 8 vs Colorado Rapids 14 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Points: San Jose Earthquakes 48 vs Colorado Rapids 42 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Goal difference: San Jose Earthquakes 7 vs Colorado Rapids 1 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
- Points per game in this competition: San Jose Earthquakes 1.17 vs Colorado Rapids 1.17 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game in this competition: San Jose Earthquakes 1.33 vs Colorado Rapids 1.50 — leans Colorado Rapids
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: San Jose Earthquakes 1.50 vs Colorado Rapids 1.50 — roughly even
Shots and expected goals — roughly even
Shot and expected-goals profiles grade out as roughly even.
- Expected goals for: San Jose Earthquakes 1.20 vs Colorado Rapids 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: San Jose Earthquakes 1.20 vs Colorado Rapids 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: San Jose Earthquakes 0.3 vs Colorado Rapids 0.0 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: San Jose Earthquakes 0.1 vs Colorado Rapids 0.0 — roughly even
Rest and availability — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors San Jose Earthquakes.
- Days of rest: San Jose Earthquakes 4 vs Colorado Rapids 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: San Jose Earthquakes 80 vs Colorado Rapids 91 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes.
- Elo: San Jose Earthquakes 1491 vs Colorado Rapids 1476 — roughly even
- Win streak: San Jose Earthquakes 0 vs Colorado Rapids 1 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: San Jose Earthquakes 0 vs Colorado Rapids 2 — leans Colorado Rapids
- Home/away split win rate: San Jose Earthquakes 0.33 vs Colorado Rapids 0.08 — leans San Jose Earthquakes
Head-to-head — roughly even
Head-to-head history between Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes does not clearly favor either side.
- Win rate in prior meetings: San Jose Earthquakes 0.33 vs Colorado Rapids 0.33 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: San Jose Earthquakes 1.17 vs Colorado Rapids 1.33 — roughly even
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Colorado Rapids +220 | Draw +290 | San Jose Earthquakes +124 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.