Feeling ClutchCF Montreal vs Charlotte
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
Charlotte 64% to win
Home win 64%, draw 19%, away win 17%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Charlotte (16 edges vs 3 edges for CF Montreal).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Charlotte
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Win rate: Charlotte 0.42 vs CF Montreal 0.17 — leans Charlotte
- Points per game: Charlotte 1.58 vs CF Montreal 0.67 — leans Charlotte
- Goals scored per game: Charlotte 1.92 vs CF Montreal 0.92 — leans Charlotte
- Goals allowed per game: Charlotte 1.67 vs CF Montreal 2.17 — leans Charlotte
- Goal difference per game: Charlotte 0.25 vs CF Montreal -1.25 — leans Charlotte
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Charlotte
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Win rate: Charlotte 0.33 vs CF Montreal 0.17 — leans Charlotte
- Points per game: Charlotte 1.17 vs CF Montreal 0.67 — leans Charlotte
- Goals scored per game: Charlotte 1.67 vs CF Montreal 0.83 — leans Charlotte
- Goals allowed per game: Charlotte 2.00 vs CF Montreal 1.83 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans Charlotte
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Table rank: Charlotte 11 vs CF Montreal 29 — leans Charlotte
- Points: Charlotte 47 vs CF Montreal 25 — leans Charlotte
- Goal difference: Charlotte 7 vs CF Montreal -26 — leans Charlotte
- Points per game in this competition: Charlotte 1.17 vs CF Montreal 0.67 — leans Charlotte
- Goals scored per game in this competition: Charlotte 1.67 vs CF Montreal 0.83 — leans Charlotte
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: Charlotte 2.00 vs CF Montreal 1.83 — leans CF Montreal
Shots and expected goals — leans CF Montreal
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors CF Montreal.
- Expected goals for: Charlotte 1.20 vs CF Montreal 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: Charlotte 1.20 vs CF Montreal 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: Charlotte 1.1 vs CF Montreal 2.2 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: Charlotte 0.2 vs CF Montreal 1.1 — leans CF Montreal
Rest and availability — leans Charlotte
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Days of rest: Charlotte 4 vs CF Montreal 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: Charlotte 51 vs CF Montreal 102 — leans Charlotte
Elo and streaks — leans Charlotte
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors Charlotte.
- Elo: Charlotte 1541 vs CF Montreal 1381 — leans Charlotte
- Win streak: Charlotte 0 vs CF Montreal 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: Charlotte 0 vs CF Montreal 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: Charlotte 0.58 vs CF Montreal 0.08 — leans Charlotte
Head-to-head — leans CF Montreal
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors CF Montreal.
- Win rate in prior meetings: Charlotte 0.50 vs CF Montreal 0.50 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: Charlotte 1.17 vs CF Montreal 1.50 — leans CF Montreal
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
CF Montreal +520 | Draw +400 | Charlotte -192 | O/U 3.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.