Feeling ClutchBologna vs AC Milan
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
AC Milan 59% to win
Home win 59%, draw 23%, away win 18%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned AC Milan (19 edges vs 2 edges for Bologna).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans AC Milan
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors AC Milan.
- Win rate: AC Milan 0.50 vs Bologna 0.33 — leans AC Milan
- Points per game: AC Milan 1.75 vs Bologna 1.33 — leans AC Milan
- Goals scored per game: AC Milan 1.75 vs Bologna 1.25 — leans AC Milan
- Goals allowed per game: AC Milan 1.25 vs Bologna 1.25 — roughly even
- Goal difference per game: AC Milan 0.50 vs Bologna 0.00 — leans AC Milan
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans AC Milan
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors AC Milan.
- Win rate: AC Milan 0.50 vs Bologna 0.33 — leans AC Milan
- Points per game: AC Milan 2.00 vs Bologna 1.33 — leans AC Milan
- Goals scored per game: AC Milan 2.00 vs Bologna 1.33 — leans AC Milan
- Goals allowed per game: AC Milan 1.00 vs Bologna 1.33 — leans AC Milan
Table and competition — leans AC Milan
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors AC Milan.
- Table rank: AC Milan 4 vs Bologna 13 — leans AC Milan
- Points: AC Milan 18 vs Bologna 8 — leans AC Milan
- Goal difference: AC Milan 9 vs Bologna -2 — leans AC Milan
- Points per game in this competition: AC Milan 2.00 vs Bologna 1.33 — leans AC Milan
- Goals scored per game in this competition: AC Milan 2.00 vs Bologna 1.33 — leans AC Milan
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: AC Milan 1.00 vs Bologna 1.33 — leans AC Milan
Shots and expected goals — leans AC Milan
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors AC Milan.
- Expected goals for: AC Milan 1.20 vs Bologna 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: AC Milan 1.20 vs Bologna 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: AC Milan 4.2 vs Bologna 3.5 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: AC Milan 1.9 vs Bologna 1.2 — leans AC Milan
Rest and availability — leans Bologna
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Bologna.
- Days of rest: AC Milan 3 vs Bologna 4 — leans Bologna
- Listed injuries: AC Milan 0 vs Bologna 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans AC Milan
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors AC Milan.
- Elo: AC Milan 1648 vs Bologna 1549 — leans AC Milan
- Win streak: AC Milan 2 vs Bologna 1 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: AC Milan 3 vs Bologna 1 — leans AC Milan
- Home/away split win rate: AC Milan 0.50 vs Bologna 0.67 — leans Bologna
Head-to-head — leans AC Milan
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors AC Milan.
- Win rate in prior meetings: AC Milan 0.67 vs Bologna 0.17 — leans AC Milan
- Goals per meeting: AC Milan 2.00 vs Bologna 0.83 — leans AC Milan
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Bologna +460 | Draw +300 | AC Milan -135 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.