Feeling ClutchAtlanta United FC vs New York City FC
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — MLS Prediction & Pick
New York City FC 51% to win
Home win 51%, draw 23%, away win 27%. That lean is driven mainly by elo. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Atlanta United FC (10 edges vs 8 edges for New York City FC).
Note: the model leans New York City FC even though the simple edge count favors Atlanta United FC. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans Atlanta United FC
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors Atlanta United FC.
- Win rate: New York City FC 0.08 vs Atlanta United FC 0.33 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Points per game: New York City FC 0.75 vs Atlanta United FC 1.25 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goals scored per game: New York City FC 1.00 vs Atlanta United FC 1.50 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goals allowed per game: New York City FC 1.33 vs Atlanta United FC 1.67 — leans New York City FC
- Goal difference per game: New York City FC -0.33 vs Atlanta United FC -0.17 — roughly even
Short-term form (last 5 games) — leans Atlanta United FC
Looking at the last five matches — results and goals — the matchup favors Atlanta United FC.
- Win rate: New York City FC 0.00 vs Atlanta United FC 0.33 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Points per game: New York City FC 0.50 vs Atlanta United FC 1.17 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goals scored per game: New York City FC 1.00 vs Atlanta United FC 1.67 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goals allowed per game: New York City FC 1.67 vs Atlanta United FC 1.83 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans New York City FC
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors New York City FC.
- Table rank: New York City FC 23 vs Atlanta United FC 28 — leans New York City FC
- Points: New York City FC 35 vs Atlanta United FC 30 — leans New York City FC
- Goal difference: New York City FC 2 vs Atlanta United FC -15 — leans New York City FC
- Points per game in this competition: New York City FC 0.50 vs Atlanta United FC 1.17 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goals scored per game in this competition: New York City FC 1.00 vs Atlanta United FC 1.67 — leans Atlanta United FC
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: New York City FC 1.67 vs Atlanta United FC 1.83 — leans New York City FC
Shots and expected goals — leans New York City FC
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors New York City FC.
- Expected goals for: New York City FC 1.20 vs Atlanta United FC 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: New York City FC 1.20 vs Atlanta United FC 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: New York City FC 2.8 vs Atlanta United FC 2.3 — roughly even
- Shots on target for: New York City FC 1.1 vs Atlanta United FC 0.5 — leans New York City FC
Rest and availability — leans Atlanta United FC
Factoring in days of rest and listed injuries, the matchup favors Atlanta United FC.
- Days of rest: New York City FC 4 vs Atlanta United FC 4 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: New York City FC 130 vs Atlanta United FC 99 — leans Atlanta United FC
Elo and streaks — roughly even
Elo, streaks, and venue splits do not clearly separate Atlanta United FC and New York City FC.
- Elo: New York City FC 1493 vs Atlanta United FC 1414 — leans New York City FC
- Win streak: New York City FC 0 vs Atlanta United FC 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: New York City FC 1 vs Atlanta United FC 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: New York City FC 0.25 vs Atlanta United FC 0.33 — leans Atlanta United FC
Head-to-head — leans New York City FC
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors New York City FC.
- Win rate in prior meetings: New York City FC 0.17 vs Atlanta United FC 0.17 — roughly even
- Goals per meeting: New York City FC 2.33 vs Atlanta United FC 1.83 — leans New York City FC
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Atlanta United FC +350 | Draw +340 | New York City FC -130 | O/U 3.5 (Matchbook)
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.