Feeling ClutchCagliari vs AS Roma
Tuesday, October 27, 2026 — Serie A Prediction & Pick
AS Roma 70% to win
Home win 70%, draw 17%, away win 13%. That lean is driven mainly by form and elo.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned AS Roma (18 edges vs 1 edge for Cagliari).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this match.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last 10 games) — leans AS Roma
Evaluating win rate, points, and goals over the last ten games, the matchup favors AS Roma.
- Win rate: AS Roma 0.58 vs Cagliari 0.50 — leans AS Roma
- Points per game: AS Roma 2.08 vs Cagliari 1.67 — leans AS Roma
- Goals scored per game: AS Roma 2.42 vs Cagliari 0.83 — leans AS Roma
- Goals allowed per game: AS Roma 0.92 vs Cagliari 1.08 — leans AS Roma
- Goal difference per game: AS Roma 1.50 vs Cagliari -0.25 — leans AS Roma
Short-term form (last 5 games) — roughly even
Short-term form is roughly even between Cagliari and AS Roma.
- Win rate: AS Roma 0.33 vs Cagliari 0.50 — leans Cagliari
- Points per game: AS Roma 1.50 vs Cagliari 1.67 — roughly even
- Goals scored per game: AS Roma 2.33 vs Cagliari 0.83 — leans AS Roma
- Goals allowed per game: AS Roma 1.50 vs Cagliari 1.33 — roughly even
Table and competition — leans AS Roma
Factoring in table position, points, goal difference, and results in this competition, the matchup favors AS Roma.
- Table rank: AS Roma 3 vs Cagliari 9 — leans AS Roma
- Points: AS Roma 18 vs Cagliari 13 — leans AS Roma
- Goal difference: AS Roma 13 vs Cagliari -3 — leans AS Roma
- Points per game in this competition: AS Roma 2.00 vs Cagliari 1.67 — leans AS Roma
- Goals scored per game in this competition: AS Roma 1.83 vs Cagliari 0.83 — leans AS Roma
- Goals allowed per game in this competition: AS Roma 1.00 vs Cagliari 1.33 — leans AS Roma
Shots and expected goals — leans AS Roma
Comparing shot volume and expected-goals profiles, the matchup favors AS Roma.
- Expected goals for: AS Roma 1.20 vs Cagliari 1.20 — roughly even
- Expected goals against: AS Roma 1.20 vs Cagliari 1.20 — roughly even
- Shots for: AS Roma 10.0 vs Cagliari 2.4 — leans AS Roma
- Shots on target for: AS Roma 3.1 vs Cagliari 0.8 — leans AS Roma
Rest and availability — roughly even
Rest and availability look similar for Cagliari and AS Roma.
- Days of rest: AS Roma 3 vs Cagliari 3 — roughly even
- Listed injuries: AS Roma 0 vs Cagliari 0 — roughly even
Elo and streaks — leans AS Roma
Weighing Elo ratings, current streaks, and home/away splits, the matchup favors AS Roma.
- Elo: AS Roma 1677 vs Cagliari 1491 — leans AS Roma
- Win streak: AS Roma 0 vs Cagliari 0 — roughly even
- Unbeaten streak: AS Roma 1 vs Cagliari 0 — roughly even
- Home/away split win rate: AS Roma 0.67 vs Cagliari 0.42 — leans AS Roma
Head-to-head — leans AS Roma
Looking at recent meetings between these sides, the matchup favors AS Roma.
- Win rate in prior meetings: AS Roma 0.67 vs Cagliari 0.17 — leans AS Roma
- Goals per meeting: AS Roma 1.83 vs Cagliari 0.33 — leans AS Roma
Win chance comes from the scoreline distribution of the predicted goals.
Betting Lines
Cagliari +840 | Draw +400 | AS Roma -227 | O/U 2.5 (Betfair)
Final Score
Cagliari 2, AS Roma 4 — AS Roma win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.